The Short Answer
26% of mandatory reconsiderations cleared in the quarter ending July 2026 changed the award, excluding withdrawn ones. Over the five years from August 2021 to July 2026, 27% of the 1.4 million reconsiderations cleared did so. For initial decisions made between April 2021 and March 2026, the figure for completed reconsiderations was 15%. All three come from the DWP's quarterly PIP statistics and describe outcomes across a population, not the odds in any particular case.
The Published Figures
The table below sets out the position, with each figure taken from the DWP release published on 15 September 2026.
| Measure | Figure | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Reconsiderations changing the award | 26% | Quarter ending July 2026 |
| Reconsiderations changing the award | 27% of 1.4 million cleared | August 2021 – July 2026 |
| Completed reconsiderations changing the award | 15% | Initial decisions Apr 2021 – Mar 2026 |
| Decisions with a reconsideration registered | 20% | Apr 2021 – Mar 2026 |
| Reconsiderations registered | 720,000 | Apr 2021 – Mar 2026 |
| Completed reconsiderations then appealed | 35% | Apr 2021 – Mar 2026 |
| Initial decisions awarded PIP | 54% | Apr 2021 – Mar 2026 |
| Median reconsideration clearance time, new claims | 45 calendar days | July 2026 |
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The base for the five-year initial-decision figures is 3.7 million initial decisions following a PIP assessment. Every series excludes withdrawn reconsiderations, which is why the wording matters when comparing them with figures published elsewhere.
Why the Numbers Differ
They cover different periods and different populations. The 26% is a single recent quarter of cleared reconsiderations, and the 27% is every reconsideration cleared over five years. The 15% follows initial decisions made between April 2021 and March 2026 and counts the reconsiderations completed on them.
The DWP also notes that "numbers could increase for later periods as more appeals are completed", because reconsiderations and appeals take time to be lodged and cleared. A recent period is therefore less settled than an older one.
Reading any one of them as a trend would be wrong. What all three establish is that a meaningful minority of decisions change at this stage.
What the Stage After Shows
A reconsideration that fails is not the end of the picture. Of completed reconsiderations, 35% went on to lodge an appeal. Of appeals lodged, 17% were "lapsed" — the DWP changing its own decision in the claimant's favour before a hearing. Of the decisions cleared at a hearing, 65% were overturned.
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Those figures sit on a shrinking population at each stage. Only 7% of initial decisions are appealed at all, so the high overturn rate applies to a small, self-selected group — usually the cases with the most to argue, often with advice-sector support.
The full breakdown, including the Ministry of Justice's own series, is on tribunal outcomes.
What the Figures Do Not Say
They do not predict an individual case, and nothing here gives odds. A reconsideration succeeds on the evidence it carries that the original decision did not have, and the DWP's 26% quarterly figure is an average across every kind of case.
What the numbers do justify is a practical conclusion: asking for a reconsideration is worth doing where the points section shows a genuine disagreement, because a material share of decisions change and the request costs nothing but the time to write it.
How to Use This
The process, the deadline and what to put in the request are on process and letters. Figures on this page are checked against each quarterly release; where a newer publication differs, the newer publication governs.